Tag: Neil

The Brief Rise and Rapid Fall of Alex Neil – What Happened?

George Weaver1 Comment

So, there we have it. A 1-0 loss to bottom-of-the-table Sheffield Wednesday the final nail in Alex Neil’s 16 month tenure at Stoke City, and we’re in the market for a manager for the 5th time since relegation.

If you would like a reminder, please do go back and check out the xG article from last year.

After a shaky start, Neil looked to have turned things around with an incredible run of 12 games or so from February to April 2023. 21 points from a possible 36, including huge wins over Sunderland and Coventry, gave fans hope that things may finally be coming together.

The run was everything Neil had promised. Front-foot, aggressive football, intelligent high pressing, creativity and directness in attack, and most of all: fun. It was something we hadn’t seen since the COVID-hit end to the 19/20 season, and we didn’t even get to experience that in person.

Those beautiful days of blue shading are long gone. Data: Opta via FBref.com

But the good times had to end, and wow, did they come to a brake-slamming emergency stop. A run of 2 points and just 3 goals from 7 games finished off the 22/23 season as the threadbare squad which could rarely rotate struggled to cope with fatigue. Worse still, a back injury to Player of the Season Ben Wilmot compounded the issue in breaking down a deep block.

This was all fairly reasonable in the minds of most, myself included. It was clear that Neil’s plan (at least as it showed itself in March) was a positive one, and one that had given lots of fans a big reason to buy in to a wave of optimism finally surrounding the club. Yes, the run had petered out with a whimper, but there was now a huge chance in the summer for Neil to bring in his own squad almost from scratch. This was a chance that very few managers get, to mould almost the entire club exactly as he wants it.

This was his chance to show us what he wants his team to be…

*Curb Your Enthusiasm Credits Theme*

The season started full of promise. A 4-1 victory over an admittedly poor Rotherham side was a shot in the arm for the fanbase. The new side consisted of 5 debutants and 2 returning loanees, but it was like they’d been playing together for years.

But very quickly there were worrying signs, and a week later Stoke were taken apart in a 2-0 defeat to Ipswich. The ‘all-action’ pressing approach that led to the halcyon run of Feb-April was clearly something that needed more time to develop among these new players. Ipswich were able to bait the press with ease, and play through Stoke as if they weren’t on the same pitch.

The aptitude of this pressing unit has become a very big issue in the opening 10 games of the season for Stoke, alongside a penchant for allowing attackers to turn in their own box and take a shot. Aside from a battling (and tactically strong) 1-0 win at home to Watford, Stoke were unable to add to their victories column until Gameweek 9, when a late strike from 18 year old Nathan Lowe sealed 3 points away at Bristol City in a very tight, and probably very lucky.

Prior to that game, Stoke were in 20th place, the same position they find themselves 12 games later having removed Neil from office.

Among these starting few games were the seeds of Neil’s destruction, shown best with the following similar goals conceded by Stoke through that period.

Top Left: vs Bristol City (A) – Top Right: vs Huddersfield (A)
Bottom Left: vs Millwall (A) – Bottom Right: vs Hull (H)
Images: Wyscout

In each of the 4 situations above, the opponent highlighted was able to bring the ball down and get a shot away (all 4 resulted in goals) inside the Stoke area, within the width of the 6 yard box. In each of these cases, stoke had a minimum of 5 players in within 6 yards of the ball as the goalscorer received it.

‘Same old Stoke’, right? Well, yes. And this issue seemed to combine with a run of poor injuries to change Neil’s view on how Stoke needed to add points to their tally in the following weeks.

The ‘Good’ Run

A defensively-strong performance against Southampton saw Stoke go down 1-0 to a glorious free kick, despite a stonewall penalty claim being waved away for the Potters. The blueprint was set, as Stoke looked to pack the midfield and create a scrappy game whereby they might release counterattacks from second balls and hope to defeat other teams in small moments (remember this phrase).

Ignoring the Leicester game, with the many injuries and the embarrassing surrender with 2 banks of 4 stood on their own 6 yard box, Stoke stuck with this ‘crowd them out’ mentality in the midfield throughout the next 10 games, and here began the ‘good run’ which convinced many that the tide was turning.

Shot maps from Stoke City 2-1 Sunderland

The 2-1 win at Sunderland was a nervy affair, in which neither team particularly dominated, and neither team particularly deserved to win.

Despite scoring 2 goals, Stoke’s attacking woes continued in the underlying numbers, and from the start of October to the end of November, they amassed only 6.5 xG from 9 games. In only one of those 9 did they achieve above 1 xG in a game, the 2nd dominant performance of the season away at Middlesbrough.

In the same period, despite conceding only 11 goals (4 of those in the final game of November vs QPR), Stoke’s opponents managed to create 13.4 xG, over double Stoke’s tally. It became clear that even though they had managed to pull together 3 wins from 5 unbeaten matches in this time, there was no sustainability to this run of form, unlike the highs of March.

The Middlesborough game was a rare joy. A match in which the press worked perfectly, Stoke’s build up was positive and sharp, and the 2-0 victory was well deserved. Leeds at home brought a rare return to the battling victories of old against higher-level opponents, with players throwing their bodies on the line, and a fantastically jammy set piece own goal bringing home the points. But even this joyous win and genuinely battling performance relied on Leeds missing big chances and a penalty.

The strength of battling to save points in those 5 unbeaten matches was marked by a scrappy midfield, a lack of creative freedom, and a consistent lack of bodies willing to run ahead of the ball from midfield or in wide areas. The build-up became slower, more laboured, and consistently longer into forward players. At time of writing, Stoke have attempted more long balls than any other team in the league.

Stoke’s build-up radar. They attempt more long passes p90 than anyone else in the league, and despite having more possession than average, almost 1/3 of their touches are in the attacking 3rd, well above average for the league.

This longer build up was also true of Stoke last season, and reflected the will of Alex Neil to create overloads in the wider areas, which could be hit quickly, either by switches from defence, diagonal passes over the top of fullbacks, or line-breaking passes from centre halves. If all else failed, Jacob Brown (or this season, Mehdi Léris) made a good option for a flick on into a crowded area of the near side midfielder, the full back, and the striker, all ready to win the second ball.

This season, however, the passes into those overloaded areas have been slower to come, less varied, longer, and generally with fewer bodies around the ball.

See the difference between the Rotherham game at home, and the Sheffield Wednesday game from Saturday below.

Left: vs Rotherham. Right: vs Sheff Weds.

Against Rotherham we see two clear areas, left and right, where players often interlinked to provide overloads. On the left wing we have Stevens pushed high into the opposition half, with Laurent, Johnson and Vidigal connected closely to support progression of the ball. On the right wing, we see Hoever further forward, with Pearson supporting from slightly further away, and Brown/Mmaee pushed higher to run in behind.

The small arrow to Brown from Travers indicated those longer passes as an emergency outlet. Note that in this game both centre backs played a range of progressive passes into midfield and full backs (Wilmot to Hoever in particular was a huge progression route for Stoke).

Against Sheffield Wednesday we see much less cohesion. Both centre backs contributed less to the build up, and more passes went straight down the line to full backs. Gooch and Léris were in similar average positions, and Bae Junho was almost entirely on his own, relying on straight balls down the line from Stevens.

In fact, throughout the season, midfielders have been receiving the ball in deeper and deeper areas as the games have passed.

Positions of received passes by centre midfielders. The thick white line indicates the median height at which passes were received.

On average, players in central midfield are receiving the ball ~6 yards deeper in the last 10 games than the first 10. The biggest issue here for me is not necessarily that they’re involved in build-up in deeper areas, that can be fine, but that they’re much less involved in higher areas of the pitch.

Last season we regularly saw Smallbone, Laurent, and Baker pop up in higher areas of the pitch to help create and finish off chances. These last 10 games we’ve not seen nearly as much of that. On the plot, this shows up as the squares around the half spaces near the box, which are much less bright in the second image.

Alongside this, centre midfielders added less xT (I know, I’m sorry, it’s a measure of how useful possession is, but for the purposes of this it basically means their average pass didn’t move the ball as close to the goal as it did before) in their passes in the last 10 games.

The end points of successful passes made by Stoke City centre backs. The thick white line indicates the median height at which passes were received.

The same is seen in the passes made by our centre backs. In the second plot, we see that fewer passes make it into half spaces across the halfway line, and far fewer make it into the central areas just inside Stoke’s half. The indication here is that Stoke’s build-up is much less likely to break the initial line of the opposition press by playing into the midfield than it was early in the season.

All this supports the thesis of Neil struggling to fix the defensive issues of the early season, and as such he tried to step away from his centre backs playing into more risky areas, instead preferring to allow centre midfielders to drop deeper than the opposition press, and hoping the real creativity would come from quick breaks or high regains.

‘Front-Foot, Aggressive Football’?

Stoke’s high press has actually been pretty good this season, and they’re still one of the most aggressive pressers in the league. Stoke’s PPDA (how many passes they allow the opponent to make before making a tackle/interception etc) of 8.98 is the lowest (i.e. the most aggressive press) in the league. They make the 5th most attacking 3rd tackles of any side, and have the highest duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of opponent possession.

We can see this in the two radars below.

Left: Stoke City defensive actions radar. Right: Stoke City’s opponents’ build-up radar.

In the left-hand radar, we see that Stoke make lots of tackles and interceptions, lots of tackles high up the pitch, and a larger-than-average portion of their tackles are high up the pitch.

Similarly, in the right-hand radar, we see that opponents playing against Stoke have few touches in the attacking 3rd, a very low pass completion, and a lower-than-average attacking 3rd touch ratio (number of touches in attacking third/total number of touches).

Stoke are still good at pressing, although their numbers have fallen a little in the last few weeks.

Despite this, Stoke have yet to score a goal from a high turnover all season. From 124 of these occurrences (2nd only to Leeds), 28 have ended in a shot, the 5th highest number in the league. The lack of a true goalscoring threat from this key part of Alex Neil’s ethos has further compounded the attacking woes, and couldn’t cover up the defensive errors as well as they had earlier in the season.

The creativity they do have comes often from throwing the ball into the box and hoping to pick up the resulting pinball. They put far more crosses than average into the box, and pass the ball into the area more than average too. But from this relatively high ‘expected assist’ value (how likely a pass is to result in a goal from 0-1) comes a very low conversion into xG. The xG per xA section of the radar shows that Stoke are among the poorest at the league in turning balls into good areas into high value chances.

There are two possible issues that can cause this, and I think Stoke fall foul of both, but more likely the overriding issue is the latter of the following problems.

Firstly, your shooting players could be poor at getting into those good positions, or poor at turning good passes and crosses into shots. Secondly, but more pertinent for Stoke in my opinion, you can be putting a high volume of low-value balls into the box, inflating your expected assists value but converting very few of these deliveries into good chances. This is supported by the high number of crosses and passes into the box, and an xA value that, despite being above average, is still lower in league rank than the volume of balls into the box.

Crosses are a pretty low-efficiency way of scoring goals, and that becomes even more inefficient when you don’t have lots of bodies in the box as in Stoke’s last 10 games. Compare this to the high value chances created by cut backs in March’s run, and we see a huge difference in the efficiency of Stoke’s attacks.

‘The Malaise Is Deep’

Thanks to John Percy for that turn of phrase. It really does describe the club perfectly.

Although Neil can point to several games where Stoke were on the wrong end of little mistakes, his classic line of ‘we just need to be on top in those moments’ still rings in the ears of every Stoke fan who could stand the post-match press conferences after a loss.

But at some point, you have to look into why so many of these games have been decided by small moments. The Championship is a very scrappy league, with games often decided by tiny margins, but the issue with Alex Neil’s 23/24 Stoke side is that they forced games to be this way in the last 10 weeks or so.

It’s seen perfectly in the Sheffield Wednesday game. Yes, Stoke should’ve scored a (very dubious) penalty. Mmaee and Junho Bae probably should’ve scored big chances too, but Sheffield Wednesday were given a chance to win with Stoke’s lack of control on the ball and unwillingness to play through the lines.

The scrappy nature of the match, enforced by a lack of confidence on the ball, a lack of sharpness in passing, and a midfield 3 tasked with battling their way through the game, was the reason that moment existed for the opposition.

Even the games in which Neil appeared to make attacking changes, namely vs QPR and Plymouth in which a front 4 of Vidigal, Mmaee, Campbell and Junho started, appeared more out of desperation to stop the attacking rot than a true plan.

The front 4 did create more chances against these two defensively weak opponents, despite often appearing to be left to their own devices in terms of how to break down the opposition. But even this relatively conservative attempt to let some technical players do some attacking immediately led the return of defensive woes, with the team conceding 4 (from > 2 xG) to a QPR side that had only scored 12 goals all season by that point.

And So It Begins… Again… Again…

And here you find us again, returning to the managerial market, like an addict trying to find that one hit of dopamine that will make everything great again.

I’ve been clear in my views before about the model of the club, and it will be very interesting to see if the de-facto ‘long term dudes’, in Ricky Martin and Jared Dublin, will survive contact with the next manager who walks through the door. Martin made it clear in the summer that the aim was for Stoke to build with a core ethos of ‘high tempo, aggressive, front-foot football’ in the mould of February to April’s run of form. It was even more clear that there was very little consideration that Alex Neil might not be able to deliver that.

Given the previous willingness of the owners to allow a manager to tear up the foundations of the club as soon as they are announced, any new boss may be likely to have a veto on pretty much anyone in the club. It may depend how much of Ricky Martin’s spiel has been bought into by John Coates, but the dice gets rolled again, and maybe this time we’ll get lucky…

My last post on here ended with a genuine ‘Bravo, Alex’ after the Watford win.

This one will end with a slightly more sarcastic line.

Bravo, John.

xG per game, 20 game rolling average, since Summer 2017.

Thanks to any and all readers, and please feel free to comment and follow on Twitter at @potterlytics.

Should you wish to donate to help with the running costs of the site, and the data subscriptions we use, please feel free to visit our donations page here. Any and all help is very much appreciated!

George

Well, That Certainly Was A Championship Match – Stoke’s 1-0 Battling Victory Over Watford.

George Weaver

It had everything you expect in this league, didn’t it?

Massive diagonals up to a big lad (albeit a Brazilian one), flying sliding tackles, a referee being booed to within an inch of his life, and a scrap that ends with victory for the side who could produce one moment of magic.

And what a moment of magic it was, eh?

A Very Championship Game

Looking at the most basic of metrics, the shots, we see what was a very well-contested game.

One indication of dominance in matches is the positioning and quality of chances within the game.

Generally, a dominant side will create a higher volume and quality of chances inside the now famous ‘V’ as defined by Sean Dyche in his CoachesVoice interview a while ago.

Taking a look at the shot maps for both sides, we see that there aren’t many big chances in good positions for either. Stoke edge the low-xG fight with help from Josh Laurent’s 0.2 xG stretch for the ball from Tymon’s late cross, but neither side really shows dominance here.

Left: Stoke’s shot map, Right: Watford’s shot map.
xG – ‘Why Is Your xG Different?’ – An Approximating xG Model for Less-Adequate Data.

And as above, we look therefore for a magical moment to separate the two sides.

A Vidiculous Strike

Who else could we look to but that lovely Portuguese hero?

Let’s start by looking at the scene just as Hoever gets the ball on the wide right.

Image: Wyscout

This is a scene we’ve perhaps wished for from Stoke for a long time.

As Hoever receives the ball, we have 2 pointing into the box for a cross, Laurent dropping off the full back to provide support in the half space, and Johnson attempting to make a late run from midfield to pick up half-cleared crosses and second balls.

Stoke’s most attacking players are running between defenders, into space on the blind side of their markers, and ready to attack the ball.

Image: Wyscout

As Vidigal drops off and the ball comes in, we see why having those 2 central runners makes such a difference. The ball goes past Wesley, who has pushed in to the front post, dragging the defensive player who was covering the area behind towards him.

Now, thanks to some questionable reactions from both the right back, and Livermore in midfield, Vidigal can receive the ball in space, 12 yards from goal.

And then, the magic.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

Firstly, the control. Vidigal doesn’t just cushion the ball to his feet, he extends his chest outwards to push it just beyond the oncoming Livermore, so that he can get the strike off with 2 yards of space between himself and the blocking player.

The strike itself is perfect. Snapshotting on the half-volley as opposed to waiting for the ball to set down fully stops Livermore being able to challenge, and striking cleanly with full extension of this leg generates huge power on the shot (in cricket, we might say he was using those long levers!)

Crucially, though, the quality in keeping his foot through the middle of the ball allows it to stay under the bar despite his 45 degree body position.

Chef’s kiss.

The Question of Ben

But why didn’t Pearson play?

Well, interestingly, I think there could be a tactical reason or two to explain this.

Firstly, we were well aware that Stoke’s threat may come from playing over and around the press of Watford, rather than trying to play through centrally.

Despite some of Thompson’s shortcomings, his passing range is indeed better than that of Pearson, although he didn’t particularly fill that more expansive role on the ball on Saturday.

Secondly, though, and more importantly, Watford very rarely aimed to challenge Stoke through the centre of the pitch. With the back 3 set in the middle, there was a need for more cover in wide areas to challenge players like Sema and Martins.

Laurent and Thompson dropped into wider areas off the ball to combat this, and we can see that most of Stoke’s defensive actions in their own half came in the half spaces and wider, particularly on their wide left.

Stoke City Defensive Actions in their own half.
The end point of Watford passes in the final 3rd.

We can see a good example of this as Watford get the ball on their left hand side below.

Image: Wyscout

As Martins receives the ball, the space in the middle is almost entirely vacated by Watford, with Laurent and Thompson playing as a de-facto double pivot off the ball, ready to press wide or cover 3rd man runs in the half space.

While Pearson certainly can do this role, I can see the reasoning behind Thompson, a more comfortable left sided player with a stronger passing range, to take up the role.

Formations Don’t Matter?

The big change, of course, was the switch to the much-questioned 352.

Alex Neil said in mid-week that he noticed Plymouth’s 0-0 draw last week was in no small part down to their quality in defending their own box.

The addition of eventual Man of the Match Luke McNally was an attempt to mirror this quality, with Stoke conceding 3 crosses into the box of their 4 total conceded goals in previous games this season.

This worked a treat, and we can see this in the maps below.

Left: Stoke interceptions vs Watford. Right: Stoke clearances vs Watford.

Both show a huge large of interceptions and clearances in the box, particularly in the central areas of highest dangers.

This includes blocks and clearances from Enda Stevens, Ben Wilmot, Michael Rose, Luke McNally, Jordan Thompson, and Wesley (I know, probably from a corner), showing that the 3 main centre backs were key in keeping the ball out of the box for Stoke.

Comparing this to Watford’s attacking lines (and the pass maps above) also shows that Stoke allowed the ball to come into the box from wide areas, focussing on stopping the receipt rather than cutting out the initial pass or cross.

This is a fairly big shift from the philosophy of previous games, and last season, whereby high pressing and a well-structured and well-timed trigger was pretty consistently utilised.

Against Watford we saw some of this, but I’d expect the lack of cohesion between new signings means the aggressive, well-drilled pressing unit of March 2023 wasn’t a possibility against a positive and high-quality Watford team.

Hence, we circle back round to the initial shot map and see exactly why Watford only have the one (borderline 2) shot(s) in that central 12 yard-box area..

Bravo, Alex.

Thanks to any and all readers, and please feel free to comment and follow on Twitter at @potterlytics.

Should you wish to donate to help with the running costs of the site, and the data subscriptions we use, please feel free to visit our donations page here. Any and all help is very much appreciated!

George

And So It Begins… What To Expect From Stoke

George Weaver

Well, here we are again, fancy seeing you here, et cetera, et cetera, ex chetera.

After a few weeks of nervous terror, Stoke’s transfers fell into place, and an explosion of signings were announced between the Benidorm camp and tomorrow’s fixture.

We’ve seen no fewer than 11 new(ish) faces into the squad at time of writing, with 7 permanent signings, 4 loanees, and even some transfer fees spent!

But how are we expecting to set up? What’s the new blueprint (new-print?) for this season in another revolution at the club? Let’s take a look into those signings, alongside some interesting clips from the Everton pre-season game, to see if there are any indicators to Alex Neil’s 2023/24 Stoke side might approach this incredibly long, exciting, depressing, hopeful, and soul-crushing Championship.

The New Boys

So what does the squad look like in a simplistic idea of the formation we expect them to play? If someone new has signed since this, please don’t shout at me.

Left: Stoke’s squad at the end of 2022/23. Right: Stoke’s current squad at time of writing.
Josh Onomah is marked (T) as he has not yet signed permanently. Campbell/Brown are marked in grey on the right wing, as they can both cover there if needed.

It’s a fairly safe assumption that Stoke will be, at least in spirit, playing in a 433 variant. Of course, during games, there will be tweaks to this in and out of possession, but this gives us a basis from which to judge the depth.

In comparison with the squad on our last viewing, shown to the left above, it’s night and day. The majority of first team spots have at least one main option, many of whom fit the mould mentioned in our last article (The Great Rebuild – What’s The Plan?).

My first plan for this article was to go through each signing and position individually, but I think that may be both overkill and boring, so let’s take a look at the big picture of what to expect from tomorrow’s game and beyond.

The Basics – Build-up

One of the exciting parts about these new signings is the quality of passing we have in the back line during build-up.

I mentioned in an article long, long ago, that a key part of Alex Neil’s style (and many managers, in fairness) is to make the pitch as wide as possible when in possession. Last season we often saw Ki-Jana Hoever stood on the right hand touchline during build-up phases, while Tyrese Campbell occupied the left-hand touchline.

Hoever sits wide right during Stoke’s build-up vs Blackburn last season, and Campbell occupied the wide left space. As the ball moves during build-up, Stoke manipulate the first line of press and slide in Campbell in space. Image: Wyscout

Not only does this create space centrally for other players to occupy, and expand the opposition defensive shape, it also allows for quality passers of the ball to use quick, long-range diagonals to get the ball to wide players in space, who are able to square up the opposing full back.

If a defence stays compact out-of-possession against Stoke, they make these diagonals easier to wide areas, and if they expand to mark the wide men, they leave space centrally for Stoke to attack into.

Rose plays a long diagonal pass (bottom of left image) to Campbell who is on the far touchline, facing up his fullback in the attacking third (top of right image).

The quality of pass in defence was only generally something Ben Wilmot could provide, but we saw vs. Everton that this role is taken up by Michael Rose, who appears just as adept at progressing the ball through the lines.

In fact, it’s shown in both Rose and his new centre half team-mate Luke McNally’s passing from last season with Coventry.

Michael Rose passing start and end location heatmaps for 2022/23.
Luke McNally passing start and end location heatmaps for 2022/23.

Both players have consistent forward passing down the near-side wing, and both complete passes (although fewer) across the field to the far wing.

This represents a vast improvement in the build-up passing from the back line from last season, when games often relied on Wilmot to be able to break the first line. If he couldn’t do it, it often meant there were some incredibly frustrating hoofs forward, and passes backwards.

This season, we can hopefully be more confident that we have the quality to vary the build-up passing, and start to break through those presses in ways we couldn’t reliably do last year.

The Shape In Possession

We’ve seen more than one shape trialled over the course of pre-season, which I think is indicative of the variation we’re going to see throughout the year.

Against Notts County, we saw a very attacking back 4, with the 2 centre backs sat deep and spread wide in build-up, with both full-backs (Macari and Tymon) pushed very high up the field.

The addition of Ben Pearson is likely to make this shape more viable in league games, and we did see it used last season. Pearson’s role as a ‘forward sweeper’ just in front of the back 2, cutting out transitions for the opposition and playing as a single pivot, allows Stoke to put men forward without being too terrified of the counter.

Against Everton, we saw a slightly different build-up shape, that utilised a double pivot of Thompson and Laurent.

This gave a little more solidity when dropping deep, but also gave Stoke a ‘box’ from which to build in the first phases of play. In a game where possession was less easy to come by, and the quality of opposition made forward passes into the middle more difficult, this gave Stoke more players in the centre of the pitch to play through the lines should they try to do so.

Build-up in the pre-season game vs Everton. We see that Laurent is dropping off the marker to provide a pivot, with Thompson holding his line to provide options later in the move. Note that both Hoever and Stevens are high up the pitch, level with both sitting midfielders.

It will be interesting to see whether this move to a double pivot is solely to accommodate the lack of Ben Pearson’s defensive ability in this game, or whether we will see a similar move for tough matches against high-level opposition who will dominate possession.

My instinct is that Pearson’s absence was the big factor in this, but with some big teams in the league looking to dominate with quality pressing players, we may see in-game variations to this effect if build-up is not working.

Alex Neil’s Off-Ball Terrors TM

Perhaps the most impressive area of Stoke’s game during last season’s oh-so-brief renaissance was the intensity of the press, and the traps they managed to set even against quality teams.

I don’t expect to see much of a change to what we saw then in the coming season, and despite the high quality opposition, we saw some of that against Everton too.

Gotta Go Fast: A very blurry (sorry) example of the exact same pressing structure as last season vs. Everton.

In the above still frame, we see (I’m so sorry for the picture quality, pre-season makes clipping difficult!) Jacob Brown take up the forward role of providing a curved pressing run to block off passing lanes to one centre back.

Chiquinho and the apparently light-speed Tyrese Campbell are sat between the full back and centre back on each side, ready to trigger a press once the ball is played to their side.

Finally, we see Daniel Johnson man-marking the number 6, taking Will Smallbone’s role in stopping the central ball through the press.

Behind this line, Stoke are sticking with the same, brave man-to-man marking behind that first press, and the first 20 minutes of the Everton game showed that the goal is to snap into tackles to make sure initial duels are won.

As with last season, Neil trusts his players to win 1v1 duels, and those new players fit the mould of strength, agility, and intelligence needed to time challenges and win that ball.

If you want to read more about the pressing unit of last season, check out the article on it here: Anatomy of a 10-game Revolution (Part 1) – Stoke’s New Blueprint

Creating Chaos

The last part is the most exciting, though.

Neil has said many a time that he’s looking for variation in attack, through both variation in number 9s (the dreaded target man moniker), but also through wide players who are strong on the ball and keen to take their man on 1v1.

Well, it appears this window is a bit of a ‘mission accomplished’ on that front.

Where, in previous seasons, we saw the ball moved wide only to be passed back to Morgan Fox to cross from deep, we now see players on both side squaring up the full back and finding a way past them.

The additions of Chiquinho and Vidigal have meant that Tyrese Campbell no longer has to be the only creative force against deep defences, not only taking pressure away from him, but also giving defences two wings to have to defend against.

Those diagonals and quick switches of play become much more dangerous when both wings are manned by players who excel in 1v1 dribbling and creating chances.

Stoke vs Everton width in the first 30 seconds. Campbell receives at the top of the image, with Chiquinho at the bottom.

We see in the image above that this makes a slight tweak to Stoke’s attacking shape, where in matches last season, Brown would take up his position between the full back and centre back, with Hoever charging forward to fill the wide space behind the full back.

This time, Brown keeps his space, but as a central striker, this allows Chiquinho to push into the wide space, and Johnson to press into the space between the opposite centre half and full back.

A front 5 including two wingers, two 8s, and the centre forward is much more dangerous than relying on full backs to attack opposition defences themselves, especially when you have centre forwards like Brown, Mmaee, and Wesley, with stronger movement in the box than a slightly ageing Gayle.

It also brings the additional benefit that full backs can overlap, underlap, or sit deeper for their wingers, rather than being the width-providers themselves. This versatility means Hoever and Tymon (presumably) should be able to contribute much more effectively to the attack.

A Strike Force?

But, going back to the two centre forwards Stoke have signed, we see more of that variation Neil has mentioned so often.

Ryan Mmaee in particular represents an interesting continuation of Dwight Gayle’s somewhat unexpected role as a deeper striker in 2022/23.

His decreasing pace overall, and specifically lack of quick movement within the box led to him dropping deeper and trying to affect the game more in the build-up, and this seems to be something Mmaee can excel in.

A strong, quick, technical striker who is keen to link the play and create for others alongside scoring himself, Mmaee’s quality on the ball is something Stoke have missed when breaking quickly in transitio.

Add onto that, the ability to pick out sharp final passes has been a big problem in facing the dreaded low block opposition of the Championship.

I definitely recommend this thread from @HCfootball01 on twitter for more info on Mmaee: https://twitter.com/HCfootball01/status/1684511415090937857

But what about those pesky games where we need the ball in the box but we just don’t have the presence to win it?

Step forward, Wesley.

We only have to take a look at his shot map from his opening Premier League season with Aston Villa to see where Wesley’s qualities lie.

Shot map for Wesley’s 2019/20 season with Aston Villa, prior to his injury.

The average distance being as low as 12m from goal, taking as high as 0.21 xG per shot, with only 5 of 34 shots from outside the area, and the majority being between the penalty spot and the 6 yard box show clearly that Wesley is a traditional box threat.

He’s also a strong presence outside the box, holding the ball up and bringing others to play.

I think we’re most likely to see him in games where Stoke need the ball in the box quickly, and where playing through the lines in build-up may not be possible.

Adding the clever movement and engine of Jacob Brown, and even the return of Dwight Gayle from injury to this front line makes for a big part of that variation Neil has so often asked for.

So, are we excited? Absolutely. Will hope kill us again? Maybe. Will we get swept along in it all anyway? Of course.

Thanks to any and all readers, and please feel free to comment and follow on Twitter at @potterlytics.

Should you wish to donate to help with the running costs of the site, and the data subscriptions we use, please feel free to visit our donations page here. Any and all help is very much appreciated!

George

Anatomy of a 10-game Revolution (Part 2) – The On-Ball Boogaloo

George Weaver

Part 2: Chance Creation and Build-up Play

Welcome back, to those of you who just read Part 1, looking at sustainability and off-the-ball work, and to those who didn’t go and check it out here (Anatomy of a 10-game Revolution (Part 1) – Stoke’s New Blueprint)!

You join us as we look into Stoke’s remarkable turnaround since February, and to reiterate the context here, let’s look at a brief table.

First 30 Games – Before Huddersfield – HLast 9 Games – Huddersfield – H – Onwards
xG For per 90 mins1.132.10
xG Against per 90 mins1.130.90
xG Difference per 90 mins+0.00+ 1.20
Data from Opta via FBRef

You might say that this could just be a lucky run of fixtures, but as we mentioned in Part 1, this run includes games against 4 of the top 10 most in-form teams in the league, and Stoke’s 10-game rolling xG difference has been above +0.5 for 8 matches now.

Last time we looked at how Stoke’s work off-the-ball work has contributed to this improvement in the underlying numbers, particularly in winning the ball high up the pitch, stopping opponents in their build-up phase.

This time, we’ll look into how Stoke have ramped up that xG for stat, through their own build-up play, and the way they look to create their chances.

If You Build It…

First up, let’s look into Stoke’s building from the back. In a very strong interview during the Sheffield United away game, Alex Neil said the following:

“I thought first half we wanted to try to play and open the pitch out, and to be honest we did that to Sheffield United’s benefit rather than ours.”

“We got a lifeline before half-time by getting a goal, changed it at half-time by not risking it at the back and getting the ball forward, on the front-foot, up against them and aggressive.” [BBCSport]

It appeared that Stoke’s building phase was over, dead and buried, Rest in Peace (2022-2023).

Sure enough, in the following league game, a 4-0 victory over Reading, Stoke did exactly as said in the previous game. They had only 38.1% possession, and the trend continued against Luton in the next game.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

In this clip, Stoke have a free kick just inside their own half. Baker plays the ball short to Wilmot, and we see the plan for Stoke.

Immediately Sterling and Gayle start to bomb forward, and Wilmot clears the ball long into the channel.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

This clip tells a similar tale. Fox receives the ball 20 yards into the Stoke half. As Tymon drops deep to support, Laurent runs forward in the midfield to get into an area of space.

Fox immediately throws a long pass into the left hand channel, unfortunately this time it ends up in Luton’s possession.

So how has this changed over the past couple of months?

Well, let’s look at the two major build-up plans that I think I’ve been able to pull from Stoke’s recent matches.

…Wins Will Come

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

This time we look at a Stoke goal kick in their home game against Blackburn. The two centre backs, Fox and Tuanzebe, set up within the penalty box to provide a pass for Bonham. Pearson is in a deeper role centrally to provide an option during the next phase.

The ball goes to Tuanzebe, who plays it across to Fox. This draws the first line of Blackburn’s press, and two forwards close down the centre backs.

Fox turns and puts the ball wide to Sterling, and Ben Pearson moves deeper and wider to provide support. At this point, Blackburn’s first line of press has been beaten, but they have forced the ball wide, and would probably feel like it’s going okay for them.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

As Pearson drops to support, Sterling plays it across to him, and this is where it gets interesting.

Up to this point, the tempo has been relatively low, Stoke have been playing the ball across calmly and baiting the press forwards.

But Pearson immediately shifts the tempo and puts the ball forward with a high pass towards the halfway line. Note: High pass, aimed towards a specific forward/area where forwards should be, not a hoof like some of the passes we saw vs. Luton.

The switch of tempo and pass beat the press, and Gayle nods the ball back into the path of Tyrese Campbell, into a large space in the centre of the pitch.

The slow tempo passing in the previous two images created this space, by drawing those Blackburn midfielders forward. This is a controlled line-breaking move, known by some as an artificial transition. This allows Stoke to attack a defence that isn’t set, and has spaces available to attack.

At this point, Campbell bombs forward to the opposition box, and plays in Will Smallbone for a high-value chance.

Note how the 2nd image here shows Campbell, Laurent and Smallbone immediately bombing forward as Gayle wins the header. This was a crucial part of Stoke’s build-up in this game.

Interestingly, though, this specific routine isn’t necessarily something Stoke do every match, but as with the press we spoke about in Part 1, the principles remain the same throughout.

Let’s take a look at this build-up from the 0-0 draw at home to Norwich.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

In this game, Norwich dropped into a fairly flat mid block, to prevent Stoke from finding space in between the lines. This is intended to stop the artificial transition mentioned in the last clips, by denying space and forcing Stoke to try to play into areas where Norwich have numerical superiority.

Stoke again play the ball calmly and at a low tempo, with extra space to move into towards the halfway line. Wilmot plays it across to Tuanzebe, who moves wider while Pearson drops into the centre of defence.

This allows Tuanzebe, a very press-resistant centre back, to move forward into space on the right hand side. He exchanges passes with Pearson and moves into that space.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

Tuanzebe moves into that space, and we see the compact mid-block shape of Norwich in the first frame.

He waits until the attacker presses the ball, and then plays a pass forwards into makeshift-winger Hoever. Note the movement of Brown, ready to get into position for the next pass in the move. This forward thinking is crucial to breaking down a tough block of compact players.

We also see that Stoke are very wide in possession. Pearson dropping into the quarterback role allows other players to spread out, and we see that despite the ball being on the near touchline, Fox and Campbell are still very wide on the opposite side of the pitch.

Hoever receives the ball and plays it down the line into Brown’s path. Again, We see Smallbone and Campbell running into positions again to receive the next pass or cross.

Again, we follow the same principles as before, drawing the first line of pressure as much as possible with lower-tempo play, then switching quickly to higher-tempo passing, forwards into the midfield or frontline, followed by runners consistently supporting the ball, thinking one or two passes ahead to get into position to receive.

Now in the Coventry game we saw more evidence of another build-up plan, in which Stoke get the ball forward much more quickly into areas of the pitch where they can win first and second duels. This takes advantage of the combative nature of Stoke’s starting XI.

We can see in the plot below that all of Stoke’s forward players are above average in at least one of ‘offensive duels per 90’ or ‘aerial duels per 90’.

Reminder that this is just one indicator, check out our player radars to find out other stats such as success rates! (Player Stats)

In this case, Stoke are looking to a much more simple plan, but still sticking by the same philosophy.

Getting the ball forward into aerially-strong players like Brown and Powell allows Stoke to crowd an area of the ball, where strong, combative players like Smallbone, Hoever and Laurent can win the second ball, again forcing a transition-like phase of play.

This again means Stoke can attack a defence that isn’t set, and aided by quality, high tempo passing alongside quick attackers, they can exploit the extra space available.

We come to the 3 main principles of Stoke’s build-up:

  • Lower the tempo to tempt the opponent to press if possible.
  • Quickly change the tempo to expose spaces in the opponent’s lines, either with line-breaking passes or balls to strong aerial threats.
  • Get bodies into good positions to receive the next passes.

And while build-up is great, there’s no reason to do any of it unless you can create chances! So how do Stoke go about doing the hardest thing in football – scoring goals?

Now For The Fun Bit

We see these principles merge into Stoke’s chance creation, particularly in the specific (if vague) philosophy of exposing spaces.

But, when Stoke do manage to generate either a true transition, by winning the ball high up the pitch, or an artificial transition through build-up as above, we do see some specific areas that the team look to exploit more often.

Most interestingly in my view, I want to speak a little (a lot) about the xG-geek’s favourite – the cut back.

You may have seen Arsenal and Man City utilise this type of chance a lot over the cause of this season, and there is a specific reason teams target this kind of chance.

Most important of these is that shots from this area are very high-value, in terms of xG. Cut-backs are also ground passes, and tend to be taken first time, both of which are factors which increase the historical likelihood of scoring.

An xG model based entirely on location of the shot, we see that central, close shots are of the highest values. Credit: https://www.datofutbol.cl/xg-model/

It was incredibly surprising watching footage back of recent Stoke games, just how many of Stoke’s recent flurry of opportunities have come either from traditional cut-backs, or similar ground-crosses to the area around the penalty spot. For the rest of this piece, I will refer to both types of chances as ‘cut-backs’ for ease.

Using the 1v1 skill and quality in creation of left-winger Tyrese Campbell, Stoke look to expose the right hand side of opposition defences. The ability of Campbell to go either inside or outside a defender means that 2 chances can be created by getting him on the ball wide of the box.

First off, we see the specialism of Campbell, the cut in and shoot to the far post (see the work on the Ty-phone Zone here). But more recently we’ve seen that he has been focused on moving outside, down the line, and cutting the ball back towards the penalty spot.

But there are issues. Cut-backs move the ball into areas that teams work very hard to defend, so there are likely to be lots of defensive bodies pressuring the shooter, decreasing the likelihood of scoring.

Stoke have a very interesting way of helping increase their chances despite this, and it involves the impressive rise of Will Smallbone and Josh Laurent.

Let’s look into the second goal away at Swansea, a clip also analysed in our Josh Laurent Profile.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

Campbell has the ball at the top of the screen, on the corner of the Swansea box.

He stands up the right back, and we see movement from Smallbone, Brown and Gayle, the 3 forwards, into the 6 yard box. These runs are crucial as the Swansea players are forced to track deeper towards their own goal to mark.

As Campbell beats his man on the outside, these runs into the 6 yard box open up space behind the front line, where Josh Laurent is waiting. The cut back comes, and Laurent powers the ball into the net.

The forward players drag the defenders deeper, opening up space. This is one reason we’ve seen an increase in the number of shots (and goals) from Smallbone and Laurent in recent weeks.

The same happened for Laurent’s finish against Sunderland, as below.

Image: Wyscout

Stoke break forward down the right hand side quickly after a drop ball in their own box.

As Smallbone gets the ball, Gayle has moved onto the edge of the six yard box, taking the defender with him. The quick break forward means Sunderland’s back line is out of shape, leaving space for Laurent to arrive late and finish the move with a goal.

Finally, we can see the move for the 2nd goal at home to Huddersfield, at the start of the run of form.

Click on each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

Campbell again has the ball on the corner of the box, but this time Stoke are facing a very set defence, having just taken a corner. In the box there is a 6v4 in Huddersfield’s favour.

Notice that as Campbell starts his run down the line, to create the cutback opportunity, Dwight Gayle and Jacob Brown immediately sprint to get into position in the six yard back to drag those defenders back and make space.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

As Campbell gets into position to play the pass into the box we again see the space created by Gayle and Brown pushing the defenders into the six yard box. This time the pullback comes to Brown, who cleverly drops off the defenders.

After a short scramble and a good save, Brown finishes the move to put Stoke 2-0 up.

We see, looking at the last 5 games of Stoke’s crosses, a big clump of left-sides ground crosses. Most of these are from Tyrese Campbell.

Data from Wyscout

In the last 5 games, Stoke have amassed over 2.1 xG just from crossing, according to Wyscout.

In the most recent game, away at Coventry, we saw yet another chance from the same type of cutback.

I won’t explain each bit frame-by-frame again, but here’s Smallbone’s 0.4 xG (Infogol) chance in the first half. Created by winning the ball just inside the opposition half, Laurent plays the ball to Campbell, and the magic commences.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

Now I’m not joking when I say I can find at least another dozen examples of this exact move in the last 5 games. There is a really specific drive to create this type of chance from Stoke.

But that’s not all Stoke do! This specific tactic is one among many, but all follow those basic principles we spoke about earlier. Trying to unsettle and attack a disorganised defence is paramount, and we can see some examples of this in other big chances Stoke have created recently.

Central Perks

We’ve focused on Stoke’s attacking through wide areas, but the propensity to create transitional attacks against disorganised defences, alongside excellent passing quality in the midfield and forward lines, can also lead to Stoke playing large numbers of line-breaking passes through or from the middle of the pitch.

Let’s take a look at a few examples.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

Stealing again from the excellent, informative Josh Laurent profile posted here last week, we go back to the Middlesbrough away game, where Stoke pick up the ball in Middlesbrough’s half, and Hoever bombs forward into space.

Laurent’s quick thinking and quality in pass allow him to deliver a raking ball over the top of the Boro defender, and Hoever goes on to score.

Again we see the same principles that I’ve exhaustively told you about. Quick transition, bodies forward, play the dangerous ball at high tempo to expose uncertain defences.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

This time we join the Sunderland match towards the end (as you can tell from the stands).

Tymon wins a loose ball back after some nice play from Stoke, and twists past one player to come inside.

He plays a reverse ball through for Gayle who now has a good chance. The keeper makes a save but this is a positive attacking move from Stoke, even late in the game.

Finally, let’s see the whole process of building through artificial transition, surpassing a press, and scoring a goal, come together in this clip of the first goal vs Coventry.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

Initially we see a similar start to the examples above in the blog. Stoke calmly pass the ball about in the back line, drawing the two Coventry strikers forward. As the space opens up, the ball moves wide to Hoever, who plays a powerful ground pass down the line to Brown.

Image: Wyscout

Brown pins the defender behind him, and lays off a pass into the path of the oncoming Smallbone. Now Stoke have exposed some of the space we spoke about above, and are in a position to attack a disorganised defence.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout

The ball moves wide to Campbell, a little later in the move, and here we see another pillar of the Stoke philosophy, clever movement from lots of bodies into the box. Brown points out where he wants the ball, makes an exceptional run in between the disorganised full back and centre back, and Campbell curls the ball perfectly into his path.

Again, the speed and quality of the move, abruptly coming from the slow, low tempo start, catches Coventry unawares, and Stoke take the lead.

So we can make our final conclusions about the major philosophies behind Stoke’s on-the-ball plan:

1 – When building from the back, use rapid changes from low to high-tempo play to bait the press.

2 – Play progressive passes with quality at high tempo through the pressing lines to exploit the space created by baiting the press.

3 – If necessary, or when building more quickly through longer passes, crowd 50/50 duels with combative players in order to win the second ball.

4 – Attack the space in front of the disorganised defence with large numbers.

5 – Work the ball wide, use dummy runners to drag the defence into the six yard box, and cut the ball back to late midfield runners near the penalty spot.

Of course, there are more specifics than this, and we saw in the second goal against Coventry that sometimes the plan is just to run fast and kick it long!

But, what I see here is evidence of Stoke targeting clear, data-backed tactical principles, and a few very specific moves that have led to fantastic results on the pitch.

The next few games will be a great benchmark for Stoke, facing teams who are far more likely to sit back in a low block and deny Stoke the chance to create those transitional moments.

It’s been something Stoke have struggled with all season, and despite improvements, they are still underperforming their xG. Given the number of games Stoke have lost while having a strongly positive xGD, we all want to see this issue dispelled in the next weeks.

But there is some really good evidence that Stoke may well have the most impressive side since relegation, possibly even since early 2016.

Thanks to any and all readers, and please feel free to comment and follow on Twitter at @potterlytics.

Should you wish to donate to help with the running costs of the site, and the data subscriptions we use, please feel free to visit our donations page here. Any and all help is very much appreciated!

George

The Revolution Was Televised – Alex Neil’s 4-3-3 vs Blackburn

George Weaver

Well, that was a lovely Friday night, wasn’t it?

Stoke finally seemed to, for 85 minutes at least, throw off the shackles of their home form and throw aside the curse of the game after a good performance.

A 3-2 win didn’t reflect the dominance Stoke had over the course of the game, but 4 wins from the last 6 league games does reflect the progress they seem to be making over the first few months of 2023 under Alex Neil.

The newly-found 4-3-3 of the past month or two has led to some of the most consistently promising performances from a Stoke side for several seasons.

But just what is this apparently refreshed Stoke side doing differently? What has caused this upturn in form?

Well let’s take a look at some of the characteristics we have seen, particularly in the last match.

Under Pressure

The most obvious change we’ve seen is how Stoke press their opposition. The high press has been tried several times this season, but it’s only recently been getting the results to match the performances.

We saw, against Swansea, Stoke’s wide men pressing areas, ready to push up, while the central striker pressed the ball and the rest of the team marked man to man.

A version of this continued against Blackburn in some periods, but also often dropped into a more conventional 4-4-2 shape out of possession when pressure wasn’t so intense.

It’s nearly impossible to press aggressively, and high up the pitch for 90 minutes, so Stoke’s calmer out-of-possession shape allowed them to remain compact while retaining energy and still providing chances to win the ball back.

Interestingly enough, in the early periods of the game, Tyrese Campbell was not pushed forward as aggressively as Brown and Gayle, and sat deeper in the half space, marking Blackburn’s inverted right back out of the midfield.

We see an example of this in the first minute of the game, as Blackburn’s keeper gets the ball from his centre back.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout/Potterlytics.blog

The Blackburn keeper holds the ball. Similarly to the Swansea game, we see Gayle pressing the ball directly, while Brown sets a trap for the ball to the left, and Smallbone marks the midfielder dropping deep.

As the keeper plays the ball out, however, we see the difference.

This time, Campbell isn’t marking an area like Brown on the right hand side. He’s dropped deeper to man-mark Rankin-Costello, the right back who has inverted into the midfield to create a numerical advantage and help play through the press.

Images: Wyscout/Potterlytics.blog

As the ball gets moved to the left, Brown’s trap springs, and he rushes to press the player on the ball. Gayle moves to cover the space across the box, and Smallbone/Campbell continue their man-marking missions.

Again, the ball moves all the way across to the right, and Campbell remains on the inverted full back, allowing the centre back to bring the ball forward, whilst Gayle moves to press and the central passes are marked.

This switch in focus from Campbell kept the press from being overrun by passes through the middle, and allowed Stoke to keep the upper hand while Blackburn persisted with their patient possession.

Can We Build It (Yes We Can)

More interestingly, however, Alex Neil appears to have reintroduced the build-up phase that he binned off at half time against Sheffield United in January.

Particularly noticeable in the away game at Blackpool, Stoke have started to be much more patient on the ball with their defenders, in an attempt to draw out opponents.

The passing is, like the pressing, much more brave, and we saw the fruits of that bravery and confidence against Blackburn on Friday.

Let’s look at an example. Click each image to zoom in.

Images: Wyscout/Potterlytics.blog

This is a goal kick around 10 minutes into the match. Bonham plays it to Tuanzebe who is barely outside the 6 yard box. He plays it across the box to Fox, who turns and lays it wide to Sterling.

At this point, Blackburn feel their trap has been set well, as Sterling is pressed and he is forced to play another risky ball inside to Pearson.

This is where Stoke’s bravery leads to rewards.

Pearson plays a lofted pass (note, lofted pass, not long ball or hoof) forward into Dwight Gayle, who has been occupying the space behind Blackburn’s press, against their back line.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout/Potterlytics.blog

As Stoke have bypassed the first line of the Blackburn press, there is now a large space behind Gayle.

He nods it back into that area for one of the game’s danger-men, Tyrese Campbell, to attack.

He drives into the open space, 50 yards towards the opposition goal, and lays it into Smallbone’s path, who has continued running in the space.

Smallbone hits the bar from the 1 v 1 chance, but this was a great example of Stoke forcing artificial transitions by slowing down the play at the back, and switching to high tempo play quickly to exploit the space behind the Blackburn press.

Whilst we’ve seen a lot of the traditional transitions mentioned above from Stoke in the past 6 or so games, we’ve not seen so much of this quality play from the back.

7 minutes later Stoke get another goal kick, and work a similar situation.

Click each image to zoom in

Images: Wyscout/Potterlytics.blog

Again, Bonham takes a short goal kick to Tuanzebe, and this time Blackburn press much quicker to prevent the out ball.

Tuanzebe is forced to play the ball back to Bonham, who was calm in possession all game.

He plays the ball immediately into Pearson, who has dropped into the centre of the D, and this makes space for the ball back to Tuanzebe, in the corner of the Stoke box.

Once again, Stoke play a lofted pass into the front line, where Brown has dropped off a defender to collect.

Images: Wyscout/Potterlytics.blog

Brown lays it back into the space behind the Blackburn press, where Pearson can play it left into Fox.

Stoke have created a large area of space down the left, and Campbell pushes forward with the ball where the attacks breaks down.

Both of these serve as a testament to Stoke’s improvement in playing through opposition pressing play, and specifically to their ability to create space against sides who put pressure on the back line in the last month.

While this type of build-up happened several times, Stoke also varied their build up significantly, playing lower tempo for longer periods when in the lead and in possession higher up the pitch, and playing the ball forward much quicker to give Blackburn more varied problems and generate threat from winning second balls high up the pitch.

Click each image to zoom in.

Images: Wyscout/Potterlytics.blog

This time, as Bonham receives the ball from Tuanzebe, there is no worthwhile pass available for him.

A pass back to Tuanzebe would put him under pressure, and passes to both Fox and Pearson are blocked by the Blackburn pressing forward.

Instead, he hits the ball long, bypassing two lines of pressure and reaching Jacob Brown. Brown nods the ball to Hoever, who plays it inside to Smallbone and Stoke can break forward.

4 players begin charging in behind the Blackburn defence to create space and options for Smallbone, and although the move breaks down with his pass to Gayle, this type of build-up presents another problem for Blackburn’s defensive press and back line to deal with.

The greater the variety in how you break an opposition press, the more difficult it is for them to prevent your build-up play leading to chances.

Thanks to any and all readers, and please feel free to comment and follow on Twitter at @potterlytics.

Should you wish to donate to help with the running costs of the site, and the data subscriptions we use, please feel free to visit our donations page here. Any and all help is very much appreciated!

George

What a Difference an O’ Makes – How Stoke Have Changed Under Alex Neil

George Weaver1 Comment

It’s been just over 6 months since Alex Neil took over from his predecessor at Stoke City, and it’s tough to pretend there have been more ups than downs during his tenure.

As we approach the reverse fixture of that fateful day in August when Michael O’Neill sealed his fate, I can’t help but wonder just how have Stoke City changed.

With John Coates’ clear fandom of Alex Neil, having tried to make him the manager in 2019, there appears to be a lot of trust in Stoke’s new style, and despite not having his own team just yet, we’ve seen some big shifts so far.

Let’s take a look into some of the stats to see what insights we can gain.

Everything’s Coming Up Milhouse

First off, we can take a look at how Stoke’s expected goals (xG, explainer here) numbers have changed over the course of the shift from Michael O’Neill to Alex Neil.

For this, we’ll use a plot of 5 game rolling xG/game for and against.

Since the start of 21/22, Stoke have been inconsistent, which is a surprise to no-one.

Big shifts in both xG for and xG against show a the numbers expected of a mid-table side. Add onto this that Stoke have been below-average at finishing and well below average in goalkeeping, and you find a lower mid-table outfit.

But, since the World Cup, Stoke have been steadily improving defensively, to the point where they are expected to concede a goal only once every 150 minutes.

There’s also been significant improvement in creative output over the past few games, but this is a shorter trend, more likely to be as a result of playing against some poor sides in Blackpool, Huddersfield, and Swansea.

Nevertheless, Stoke’s current output, if they can produce it even over half of a full season, is that of a side at least challenging for the play-offs.

Unfortunately, Stoke’s xG numbers are pretty far away from their results, and we can look at this through the finishing statistics below. The plot shows the finishing quality of Stoke (their non-penalty goals minus their non-penalty xG per 90 minutes) against the average quality of their shots (xG per shot).

In both of the past 2 seasons, Stoke have been underperforming their expected goals by 0.1 xG per 90 minutes, which in 2022/23 is the 4th worst value in the league.

We also get a peek into one of Stoke’s style shifts this season, as their average shot quality has reduced from 0.11 xG to below 0.09 xG.

Interestingly, we can see that although the average shot quality is lower this season, Stoke have been taking about a shot and a half more per game, possibly another hint towards the change in playstyle. This plot shows the xG per shot, against the number of shots taken per 90 minutes.

Maybe there’s a clue about origin of these changes in the way Stoke have been shooting in their creative stats.

Each of the following plots is compared with the other teams in the Championship in that season. The length of each bar (and the colour) represents the percentile rank.

Click on each plot to zoom in.

The major takeaway jumping out here is that Stoke are one of the most crossing-oriented sides in the league this season.

Although Stoke crossed more than average last season, this season they’ve been putting more crosses into the area than all but one side, and they’ve also increased the number of set pieces that lead to shots too.

The expected assists values are also increased, indicating that Stoke’s creative players are putting the ball into better areas more often for others, but the low xG from assists value shows they’re not being converted to high-value chances.

Interestingly, and probably a little surprisingly, we see that Stoke were very potent last season at creating shots from defensive actions (e.g. tackles, interceptions, and blocks), creating 20 shots over the season from their total 925 shot creating actions.

Personally, I’m a little uncertain of FBref’s definitions here, as it only includes the action directly before a shot. This means that a player making an interception and then playing his teammate through on goal does not count as a shot from a defensive action, so I’m going to keep away from using this in too much depth.

But, for reference, an example of this is Lewis Baker’s late equaliser away at Barnsley.

Images: Wyscout

As the ball bounces out to Quina, Chester rushes in and nicks the ball forward. Baker rushes onto it and thwacks a strike into the far top corner.

We’ve built a little bit more insight into Stoke as a team who like to work on set pieces and get the ball into the box, as opposed to the Stoke of last season who preferred to pass into the box.

Return of the build-up phase?

Let’s take a look at the build-up, where we will see a much clearer view of the changes that have taken place.

Click on each plot to zoom in.

First off, it’s incredibly clear that 2022/23 Stoke are much, much quicker at moving the ball forwards. In fact, they attempt more long passes than any other team in the league.

Contrasting this with 21/22, when Stoke completed 15 fewer long passes per game, and almost 50 more passes, alongside almost 40 more short passes per game, we see a side that has moved away from calm possession play and into transitional football.

We can further cement this by looking at the average pass progression, a measure of how much closer the average pass gets to the opposition’s goal. Stoke’s has increased from well below to well above average between the 2 seasons, indicating a willingness to get the ball forward further with each pass.

We see a similar story in the ratio of touches Stoke take in the attacking third compared with other areas of the pitch, deemed our ‘Attacking 3rd Touch Ratio’. This has increased significantly since last season, indicating that Stoke take a larger portion of their touches in the attacking third, and therefore that they get the ball forward quicker.

We can see this in the differences between Stoke’s attacking build-up vs Huddersfield under Michael O’Neill in August 2022, and vs Huddersfield under Alex Neil in February 2023.

First off, Huddersfield away under O’Neill:

Click each image to zoom in.

Images: Wyscout

We see here that as Flint receives the ball, he plays a short pass off to Taylor. Taylor then puts it across the line to Wilmot.

All the while, Stoke have a clear shape of a back 3 with Flint deeper as an emergency passing option, Laurent dropping into the 6 position, and the wing backs pushed up wide offering options in space.

Stoke move the ball back across to Taylor and put it out to Sparrow, who plays it back when pressured. Laurent then receives the ball and turns, moving into space and getting the ball wide to Tymon.

This patient passing, waiting for an opening, was a major part of Stoke’s build-up under O’Neill. But what are the differences this season?

Moving onto Huddersfield at home under Neil:

Click each image to zoom in.

Images: Wyscout

In this case, we see Jagielka returning the ball to the keeper, Šarkić, as he is pressed by Huddersfield players. Šarkić immediately shapes to punt the ball long, but instead opts to pass forward to Sterling.

Already we’re seeing a big shift from the calm passing of O’Neill, and in this instance Stoke’s defenders have split much wider to allow the ball to be progressed more quickly. The wingers and full backs are wider to allow progression down the channels, and the midfield are more tightly bunched together to prevent a counter through the now-open centre of the pitch.

Sterling turns, takes on a challenge from a Huddersfield wide player, and plays it forwards again to Brown, who runs from the halfway line to the edge of the Huddersfield box. He plays a ball in to Gayle who miscontrols.

We see here the difference, Stoke shape up much more open under Neil in order to progress the ball quicker, and Šarkić is used as the spare man for possession, ready to play it forward quickly if needed.

The passes between defenders are far less frequent, and the ball moves forward very quickly.

That said, we have seen in recent matches a return of the build-up phase to Stoke’s play, and particularly vs Blackpool the centre backs would draw the press before playing incisive forward passes.

But we don’t always have the ball, and our work off it is just as interesting as on it. Or at the very least, if you’ve read this far then you may as well keep going.

Dr. Midblock or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the High Press

We turn again to our trusty radar plot to check how Stoke’s defensive work has evolved with the change in manager.

Click on each plot to zoom in.

A couple of big shifts here, but we can note that Stoke are actually a side who tackles efficiently but fairly rarely when adjusted for possession, across both seasons.

However, most interesting to me is the jump in what I have called the Tackle Depth Index. This measures the average 3rd in which tackles take place, and for Stoke this has jumped from about average to well above average since Neil’s appointment.

This indicates a team doing its defensive work much higher up the pitch, and the increase in both middle and attacking 3rd tackles, alongside a decrease in defensive 3rd tackles, further implies that Stoke are pushing their defensive line further toward the opponent’s goal.

When combined with this data, the increase in the number of blocks indicates a side that will put more bodies closer to opponents as they move towards Stoke’s goal, and we see that reflected in the PPDA numbers too, as below.

PPDA, or Passes allowed Per Defensive Action, refers to the number of passes a team allows the opponent to make before attempting a defensive action, such as a tackle, interception, or block.

This is a metric that gives an indication of the pressing intensity of the side. Although like all stats, it’s not perfect, it does provide useful insights.

Remember, a lower PPDA number indicates a team presses with more intensity, as they allow fewer passes before making a defensive action.

We can see that Stoke have managed to increase their pressing intensity, whilst at the same time slightly improve their defence.

This pressing has been really visible in recent games against Swansea and Brighton, where Stoke have been very efficient at setting traps for the opposition to play the ball into.

Looking at the Brighton game, Stoke are playing a far superior side who are incredibly adept at drawing a press and finding space to play through, but they more than held their own for large portions, forcing Brighton to play longer passes into their strikers or lose the ball in midfield.

We can see from the Wyscout data below that Stoke completed a lot of duels (and won more than 50% of them) in the opposition half and defensive third.

Duels vs Brighton Image: Wyscout

We can also see from the ground duels blow that Stoke competed for the ball a significant amount in Brighton’s half.

Ground Duels vs Brighton. Image: Wyscout

Stoke allowed Brighton to play out through the centre halves, and then set traps that took advantage of their athleticism to win the ball back when Brighton tried to progress through the lines. It was incredibly brave and something that had worked very well in the previous away fixture at Swansea.

Unfortunately, Wyscout don’t have access to the Brighton footage, but we can show the same process in action against Swansea below.

Click each image to zoom in.

As the ball is played back to Swansea’s keeper, Gayle starts to press. Brown and Campbell guard an area behind the wider centre backs, and Smallbone drops with the Swansea midfielder looking to find space.

As the ball moves out to the left centre back, Brown engages.

This, along with the close marking of passing lanes and players from Smallbone, Gayle, and Campbell, forces the Swansea player to go long.

As he goes long, Pearson is marking the wing back, and regains the ball.

As he does so, we see that Wilmot and Laurent were also closely marking players in the midfield, meaning any longer pass from Swansea would likely result in a duel in Stoke’s favour.

This mechanism of not necessarily tackling the opposition 1 v 1 immediately, but forcing them into an area and enticing them to play the ball in ways you want them to is crucial to a functioning pressing side.

Note here too how Tyrese Campbell is a core part of this press, which hopefully puts to bed the unfounded criticism he’s received for not working hard. You don’t have a press this efficient with a lazy player.

This combines to give us a summary of how much we’ve seen Stoke change since O’Neill left just over 6 months ago.

Conclusions

So, what can we gain from all this? What was the point of the last 2200 words?

Well, there was no point to it really, it’s just for fun, just a roflcopter landing on the helipad of life, as Barry Homeowner might say.

But, we can definitely gain insight into what Alex Neil has changed at Stoke.

We see a side that has ditched the slow patience of Michael O’Neill’s 352 low-tempo possession build-up in favour of moving the ball forward much more quickly.

We see a team much preferring to play in transition, and building up in such a way as to force those transitions from the opposition.

We also see a team much higher in their press, and much more crossing-heavy.

All this change despite Alex Neil not having his own players just yet, and despite many injuries dictating squad decisions. It’ll be very interesting to see what happens in the summer should Stoke survive.

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George