It’s been just over 6 months since Alex Neil took over from his predecessor at Stoke City, and it’s tough to pretend there have been more ups than downs during his tenure.

As we approach the reverse fixture of that fateful day in August when Michael O’Neill sealed his fate, I can’t help but wonder just how have Stoke City changed.

With John Coates’ clear fandom of Alex Neil, having tried to make him the manager in 2019, there appears to be a lot of trust in Stoke’s new style, and despite not having his own team just yet, we’ve seen some big shifts so far.

Let’s take a look into some of the stats to see what insights we can gain.

Everything’s Coming Up Milhouse

First off, we can take a look at how Stoke’s expected goals (xG, explainer here) numbers have changed over the course of the shift from Michael O’Neill to Alex Neil.

For this, we’ll use a plot of 5 game rolling xG/game for and against.

Since the start of 21/22, Stoke have been inconsistent, which is a surprise to no-one.

Big shifts in both xG for and xG against show a the numbers expected of a mid-table side. Add onto this that Stoke have been below-average at finishing and well below average in goalkeeping, and you find a lower mid-table outfit.

But, since the World Cup, Stoke have been steadily improving defensively, to the point where they are expected to concede a goal only once every 150 minutes.

There’s also been significant improvement in creative output over the past few games, but this is a shorter trend, more likely to be as a result of playing against some poor sides in Blackpool, Huddersfield, and Swansea.

Nevertheless, Stoke’s current output, if they can produce it even over half of a full season, is that of a side at least challenging for the play-offs.

Unfortunately, Stoke’s xG numbers are pretty far away from their results, and we can look at this through the finishing statistics below. The plot shows the finishing quality of Stoke (their non-penalty goals minus their non-penalty xG per 90 minutes) against the average quality of their shots (xG per shot).

In both of the past 2 seasons, Stoke have been underperforming their expected goals by 0.1 xG per 90 minutes, which in 2022/23 is the 4th worst value in the league.

We also get a peek into one of Stoke’s style shifts this season, as their average shot quality has reduced from 0.11 xG to below 0.09 xG.

Interestingly, we can see that although the average shot quality is lower this season, Stoke have been taking about a shot and a half more per game, possibly another hint towards the change in playstyle. This plot shows the xG per shot, against the number of shots taken per 90 minutes.

Maybe there’s a clue about origin of these changes in the way Stoke have been shooting in their creative stats.

Each of the following plots is compared with the other teams in the Championship in that season. The length of each bar (and the colour) represents the percentile rank.

Click on each plot to zoom in.

The major takeaway jumping out here is that Stoke are one of the most crossing-oriented sides in the league this season.

Although Stoke crossed more than average last season, this season they’ve been putting more crosses into the area than all but one side, and they’ve also increased the number of set pieces that lead to shots too.

The expected assists values are also increased, indicating that Stoke’s creative players are putting the ball into better areas more often for others, but the low xG from assists value shows they’re not being converted to high-value chances.

Interestingly, and probably a little surprisingly, we see that Stoke were very potent last season at creating shots from defensive actions (e.g. tackles, interceptions, and blocks), creating 20 shots over the season from their total 925 shot creating actions.

Personally, I’m a little uncertain of FBref’s definitions here, as it only includes the action directly before a shot. This means that a player making an interception and then playing his teammate through on goal does not count as a shot from a defensive action, so I’m going to keep away from using this in too much depth.

But, for reference, an example of this is Lewis Baker’s late equaliser away at Barnsley.

As the ball bounces out to Quina, Chester rushes in and nicks the ball forward. Baker rushes onto it and thwacks a strike into the far top corner.

We’ve built a little bit more insight into Stoke as a team who like to work on set pieces and get the ball into the box, as opposed to the Stoke of last season who preferred to pass into the box.

Return of the build-up phase?

Let’s take a look at the build-up, where we will see a much clearer view of the changes that have taken place.

Click on each plot to zoom in.

First off, it’s incredibly clear that 2022/23 Stoke are much, much quicker at moving the ball forwards. In fact, they attempt more long passes than any other team in the league.

Contrasting this with 21/22, when Stoke completed 15 fewer long passes per game, and almost 50 more passes, alongside almost 40 more short passes per game, we see a side that has moved away from calm possession play and into transitional football.

We can further cement this by looking at the average pass progression, a measure of how much closer the average pass gets to the opposition’s goal. Stoke’s has increased from well below to well above average between the 2 seasons, indicating a willingness to get the ball forward further with each pass.

We see a similar story in the ratio of touches Stoke take in the attacking third compared with other areas of the pitch, deemed our ‘Attacking 3rd Touch Ratio’. This has increased significantly since last season, indicating that Stoke take a larger portion of their touches in the attacking third, and therefore that they get the ball forward quicker.

We can see this in the differences between Stoke’s attacking build-up vs Huddersfield under Michael O’Neill in August 2022, and vs Huddersfield under Alex Neil in February 2023.

First off, Huddersfield away under O’Neill:

Click each image to zoom in.

We see here that as Flint receives the ball, he plays a short pass off to Taylor. Taylor then puts it across the line to Wilmot.

All the while, Stoke have a clear shape of a back 3 with Flint deeper as an emergency passing option, Laurent dropping into the 6 position, and the wing backs pushed up wide offering options in space.

Stoke move the ball back across to Taylor and put it out to Sparrow, who plays it back when pressured. Laurent then receives the ball and turns, moving into space and getting the ball wide to Tymon.

This patient passing, waiting for an opening, was a major part of Stoke’s build-up under O’Neill. But what are the differences this season?

Moving onto Huddersfield at home under Neil:

Click each image to zoom in.

In this case, we see Jagielka returning the ball to the keeper, Šarkić, as he is pressed by Huddersfield players. Šarkić immediately shapes to punt the ball long, but instead opts to pass forward to Sterling.

Already we’re seeing a big shift from the calm passing of O’Neill, and in this instance Stoke’s defenders have split much wider to allow the ball to be progressed more quickly. The wingers and full backs are wider to allow progression down the channels, and the midfield are more tightly bunched together to prevent a counter through the now-open centre of the pitch.

Sterling turns, takes on a challenge from a Huddersfield wide player, and plays it forwards again to Brown, who runs from the halfway line to the edge of the Huddersfield box. He plays a ball in to Gayle who miscontrols.

We see here the difference, Stoke shape up much more open under Neil in order to progress the ball quicker, and Šarkić is used as the spare man for possession, ready to play it forward quickly if needed.

The passes between defenders are far less frequent, and the ball moves forward very quickly.

That said, we have seen in recent matches a return of the build-up phase to Stoke’s play, and particularly vs Blackpool the centre backs would draw the press before playing incisive forward passes.

But we don’t always have the ball, and our work off it is just as interesting as on it. Or at the very least, if you’ve read this far then you may as well keep going.

Dr. Midblock or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the High Press

We turn again to our trusty radar plot to check how Stoke’s defensive work has evolved with the change in manager.

Click on each plot to zoom in.

A couple of big shifts here, but we can note that Stoke are actually a side who tackles efficiently but fairly rarely when adjusted for possession, across both seasons.

However, most interesting to me is the jump in what I have called the Tackle Depth Index. This measures the average 3rd in which tackles take place, and for Stoke this has jumped from about average to well above average since Neil’s appointment.

This indicates a team doing its defensive work much higher up the pitch, and the increase in both middle and attacking 3rd tackles, alongside a decrease in defensive 3rd tackles, further implies that Stoke are pushing their defensive line further toward the opponent’s goal.

When combined with this data, the increase in the number of blocks indicates a side that will put more bodies closer to opponents as they move towards Stoke’s goal, and we see that reflected in the PPDA numbers too, as below.

PPDA, or Passes allowed Per Defensive Action, refers to the number of passes a team allows the opponent to make before attempting a defensive action, such as a tackle, interception, or block.

This is a metric that gives an indication of the pressing intensity of the side. Although like all stats, it’s not perfect, it does provide useful insights.

Remember, a lower PPDA number indicates a team presses with more intensity, as they allow fewer passes before making a defensive action.

We can see that Stoke have managed to increase their pressing intensity, whilst at the same time slightly improve their defence.

This pressing has been really visible in recent games against Swansea and Brighton, where Stoke have been very efficient at setting traps for the opposition to play the ball into.

Looking at the Brighton game, Stoke are playing a far superior side who are incredibly adept at drawing a press and finding space to play through, but they more than held their own for large portions, forcing Brighton to play longer passes into their strikers or lose the ball in midfield.

We can see from the Wyscout data below that Stoke completed a lot of duels (and won more than 50% of them) in the opposition half and defensive third.

We can also see from the ground duels blow that Stoke competed for the ball a significant amount in Brighton’s half.

Stoke allowed Brighton to play out through the centre halves, and then set traps that took advantage of their athleticism to win the ball back when Brighton tried to progress through the lines. It was incredibly brave and something that had worked very well in the previous away fixture at Swansea.

Unfortunately, Wyscout don’t have access to the Brighton footage, but we can show the same process in action against Swansea below.

Click each image to zoom in.

As the ball is played back to Swansea’s keeper, Gayle starts to press. Brown and Campbell guard an area behind the wider centre backs, and Smallbone drops with the Swansea midfielder looking to find space.

As the ball moves out to the left centre back, Brown engages.

This, along with the close marking of passing lanes and players from Smallbone, Gayle, and Campbell, forces the Swansea player to go long.

As he goes long, Pearson is marking the wing back, and regains the ball.

As he does so, we see that Wilmot and Laurent were also closely marking players in the midfield, meaning any longer pass from Swansea would likely result in a duel in Stoke’s favour.

This mechanism of not necessarily tackling the opposition 1 v 1 immediately, but forcing them into an area and enticing them to play the ball in ways you want them to is crucial to a functioning pressing side.

Note here too how Tyrese Campbell is a core part of this press, which hopefully puts to bed the unfounded criticism he’s received for not working hard. You don’t have a press this efficient with a lazy player.

This combines to give us a summary of how much we’ve seen Stoke change since O’Neill left just over 6 months ago.

Conclusions

So, what can we gain from all this? What was the point of the last 2200 words?

Well, there was no point to it really, it’s just for fun, just a roflcopter landing on the helipad of life, as Barry Homeowner might say.

But, we can definitely gain insight into what Alex Neil has changed at Stoke.

We see a side that has ditched the slow patience of Michael O’Neill’s 352 low-tempo possession build-up in favour of moving the ball forward much more quickly.

We see a team much preferring to play in transition, and building up in such a way as to force those transitions from the opposition.

We also see a team much higher in their press, and much more crossing-heavy.

All this change despite Alex Neil not having his own players just yet, and despite many injuries dictating squad decisions. It’ll be very interesting to see what happens in the summer should Stoke survive.

Thanks to any and all readers, and please feel free to comment and follow on Twitter at @potterlytics.

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George